Post-Derby Fever: Rachel Alexandra could be fifth filly ever to win Preakness

It’s been 85 years since a filly has won the second leg of the Triple Crown.

This year, Rachel Alexandra, a 20 1/4-length winner of the Kentucky Oaks ridden by Calvin Borel, is the probable favorite for the Preakness and most likely contender to win the 1 3/16-mile test for three-year-olds.

The Oaks winner was so impressive in her last outing that Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Borel is going to switch mounts to ride the filly.

As far as the record books go back, no rider that has won the Derby in its 135-year history has ever switched mounts for the Preakness.

And to Borel’s credit, it appears that he is making the right decision.

Mine That Bird’s victory in the Derby was pure fluke but ’Alexandra’s in the Oaks wasn’t.

The filly had won three straight graded stakes races, while the colt had lost three straight races, two of which were against non-graded stakes competition.

To top it off, Rachel Alexandra’s Beyer Speed Rating (108) topped the Derby winner’s (105).

The field for the Preakness is limited to 14 horses, and if any one the entries is to beat the filly, look for it to be Derby favorite Friesan Fire, who was beat by Mine That Bird by 42 lengths on the first Saturday of May.

Friesan Fire didn’t in the Derby, but he may in the Preakness. Especially if the filly can’t go wire-to-wire against the boys in a distance of which she has never run.

But if she puts forth another Secretariat-like romp, she will become the fifth filly ever to win the Preakness.

- Matthew Kimel, sports editor

Spartans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

I have been at SJSU since 2005 and have been following the sports teams every waking moment. What I have learned in four years is the Spartans never fail to disappoint. It does not matter what the sport is, every team has got my hopes up and failed to deliver.

Second round NBA Playoff predictions

Eastern Conference

No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 4 seed Atlanta Hawks

The Cavs were 40-1 at home this season, and I don’t see the road-weary Hawks cracking the Cavs home armor. MVP LeBron James is simply unstoppable. Expect multiple triple-doubles as he steps up his intensity for the playoffs. What gets lost with the Cavs is their stingy defense. The Cavs allow 91.4 points per game, which is the least allowed in the NBA. Their field-goal percentage defense is also the best in the NBA. In the four-game sweep against the Pistons, the Cavs allowed just 78 points per game.

Post-Derby Fever: Rail won’t open up like Red Sea for Borel at Pimlico

Calvin “Bo-rail” did it again.

Mine That Bird won the 135th Kentucky Derby, but not on the merit that he was the best horse in the field, rather, the better horses didn’t show up.

‘That Bird’ would have never won that Derby had injuries not occurred to nearly every contender.

That, and the fact his rider owns the rail at Churchill Downs.

Visually speaking, Mine That Bird’s win was indeed impressive.

His winning time of 2:02.66, however, was not.

And his victory of margin is telling of how weak the field indeed was.

There’s absolutely no reason not to believe that the colts that got injured (see below) along the Derby trail couldn’t have ran a better race.

Even Rachel Alexandra, winner of the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May by a romping 20-lengths, seemingly could have out run Mine That Bird.

But Borel’s winning-ride was reminiscent to that of Street Sense’s two year’s ago.

It’s almost as if the rail opens up like the Red Sea when Borel rides.

When are the other jocks going to learn to rail-block Borel?

Hopefully at Pimlico they will. But it shouldn’t matter anyway.

Even though another weak field is likely to be drawn for the Preakness, Mine That Bird will not win the second leg of the Triple Crown.

But in the mean time, let’s look at why Mine That Bird won the Roses.

First, the only major contender who did not get hurt in the Derby or on the way to Louisville was Pioneerof the Nile.

While the Bob Baffert-trainee did indeed come in second place, he once again failed to run straight in the lane, one of the major reasons why I refused to support him on Derby day. And he lost by 6 ¾-lengths to a horse sent off at boxcar odds.

Second, the list of contenders who got injured made a better “field” than the actual horses who made the field.

I Want Revenge: Scratched on Derby day.
Quality Road: Taken out of consideration on Derby week.
Midshipman: Injured after winning Breeders Cup Juvenile.
Friesan Fire: Derby favorite got jumped on out the gate, bleed throughout race.
Dunkirk: Came out of the Derby with a quarter injury.
Old Fashioned … Win Willy … and so on.

Don’t be surprised to see a horse other than Mine That Bird go off as the favorite for the Preakness. Mine That Bird and Borel won’t do it again.

-Matthew Kimel, sports editor

Derby Fever: I Want Revenge scratched; Friesan Fire should win with ease now

I’ve been saying I Want Revenge would win the Derby for weeks, and now, on the day of the Run for the Roses, he gets scratched.

Oh well.

Time to resort to plan B.

Friesan Fire, my second place horse, is now the pick.

He will have tons of history to overcome — a seven week layoff and his trainer Larrry Jones’ second-place blues in the past two runnings of the Derby.

But when Friesan Fire wins, it should make a nice story for Jones following last year’s Eight Belles tradegy.

Here are my previous picks before the scratch.

Now, I’m playing Friesan Fire boxed with Regal Ransom (should be out on the lead early) and Papa Clem (a half brother to Curlin with Bejaron aboard).

-Matthew Kimel, sports editor

Derby Fever: A betting strategy guide for the Derby and a look at 10 more contenders

Post positions will be drawn live on ESPN Wednesday afternoon for the 135th Kentucky Derby. With the recent defection of Florida Derby winner Quality Road, I Want Revenge figures to be a solid favorite to win the Run for the Roses, and rightfully so. Last week, I took a look at the top-10 contenders that could be entered into the Derby based on graded stakes earnings, and this week, I’ll examine the No. 11-20 contenders. Followed below is my betting strategy guide prior to the post positions being drawn.

11. West Side Bernie

HOW HE COULD WIN: Top-contenders don’t run to form, race completely falls apart.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His last win was in September. Not likely to return to the winner’s circle as time soon.

BEST WIN THUS FAR:  Took the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway as a 2-year-old by three-lengths.

12. Chocolate Candy

HOW HE COULD WIN: Happens to peak at the right moment; highly unlikely.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His wins have come against low-quality fields in petty stakes.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: El Camino Real Derby because it was a graded stake. His other victories may have been more impressive visually, but they weren’t graded.

13. Win Willy

HOW HE COULD WIN: Arkansas Derby fourth-place finish was fluke, runs to form in Rebel.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Ran poorly in the Arkansas Derby.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Boxcar odds Rebel Stakes win over then-contender Old Fashioned.

14. Advice

HOW HE COULD WIN: Morph’s overnight into a contender.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He ran two weeks ago, too quick of a return.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Coolmore Lexington is his only win aside from maiden.

15. Dunkirk

HOW HE COULD WIN: He’s fired four straight bullets; favored I Want Revenge gets a terrible trip.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Has only faced graded stakes competition once and did not run as a 2-year-old.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Allowance race at Gulfstream. Best race, however, was a game second to then-contender Quality Road in Florida Derby.

16. Mine That Bird

HOW HE COULD WIN: Trained magnificently under the radar for past few months.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Flopped miserably in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and hasn’t run in a graded stake since.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Grey Stakes at Woodbine in October, which concluded a four-win streak for the colt as a 2-year-old.

17. Flying Private

HOW HE COULD WIN: He can’t.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He has won just one of 10 career races.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A six-furlong maiden victory at Saratoga in August.

18. Mr. Hot Stuff

HOW HE COULD WIN: Doesn’t care for synthetic tracks, secretly loves the dirt track at Churchill Downs.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Hasn’t fared too well against graded stakes competition.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one-mille maiden victory at Santa Anita in February.

19. Summer Bird

HOW HE COULD WIN: Unexpected speed duel between 19 horses occurs in the front.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Lack of graded stakes other than Arkansas Derby; may be trailing by 20 lengths early.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one 1/16th-mile maiden victory at Oaklawn in March.

20. Join in the Dance

HOW HE COULD WIN: 19 gates fail to open, with the exception of his.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN:  Only made the field with numerous defections of better horses.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Maiden race.

135th Kentucky Derby betting guide

TO WIN: I Want Revenge

EXACTA BOX: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire

TRIFECTA WHEELS: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire with Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie
And
Friesan Fire WITH I Want Revenge WITH Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie

Regarding Jarron Gilbert …

Two years ago, as I watched San Jose State conduct its spring football practice, assistant athletic director Tom Hastings asked me who I thought the “dark horse” of the Spartans was — who was a hidden highlight-to-be.

My answer: Jarron Gilbert.

With the draft just a few hours away, I simply wanted to say that.

- Mark Powell

NFL Mock Draft

1) Detroit Lions: QB Matthew Stafford, The Lions need a lot of rebuilding, and the best place to start is at quarterback.
2) St. Louis Rams: OT Jason Smith, with the loss of Orlando Pace, the Rams need someone to step in.
3) Kansas City Chiefs: WR Michael Crabtree, The Chiefs got quarterback Matt Cassel, now they need someone for him to throw to.
4) Seattle Seahawks: OT Eugene Monroe, Hasselbeck could use more protection.
5) Cleveland Browns: DE Brian Orakpo, He brings a pass rush the Browns don’t have.

Derby Fever: Looks like Gomez, Pletcher won’t win the Derby, again

Jockey Garrett Gomez and trainer Todd Pletcher teamed up Saturday to take the $300,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. III) at odds of 15/1 as Advice was the first to cross the wire.

Those connections, however, will not be a winning pair come Derby Day, despite being arguably the best in their resective fields.

In fact, neither has ever even won the Derby. And that’s something most likely to stay true after this year.

Gomez, the nations leading jockey in terms of earnings, has made a commitment to ride Pioneer of the Nile in favor of Dunkirk and Advice.

Anyway, I’m going to change leads here since the first Saturday of May is quickly approaching, and I have already concluded that no 3-year-old will beat I Want Revenge. So let’s take a look at the other contenders and how they could(n’t) win. Horses are ranked based on highest graded stakes earnings.

NBA Playoffs: First-round predictions

Western Conference

No. 1 seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 seed Utah Jazz

The Lakers were arguably the best team in the NBA before Andrew Bynum returned from injury days ago. Bynum is a force in the paint who will make the Lakers even more invincible. Meanwhile, the Jazz struggle on the road and on the defensive end. Mehmet Okur can’t guard Bynum, Carlos Boozer can’t guard Pau Gasol and nobody in the league can guard Kobe Bryant. The Lakers should handle their business at home, and expect Bryant to take over both games in Salt Lake City.