Jockey Garrett Gomez and trainer Todd Pletcher teamed up Saturday to take the $300,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. III) at odds of 15/1 as Advice was the first to cross the wire.
Those connections, however, will not be a winning pair come Derby Day, despite being arguably the best in their resective fields.
In fact, neither has ever even won the Derby. And that’s something most likely to stay true after this year.
Gomez, the nations leading jockey in terms of earnings, has made a commitment to ride Pioneer of the Nile in favor of Dunkirk and Advice.
Anyway, I’m going to change leads here since the first Saturday of May is quickly approaching, and I have already concluded that no 3-year-old will beat I Want Revenge. So let’s take a look at the other contenders and how they could(n’t) win. Horses are ranked based on highest graded stakes earnings.
1. Regal Ranson
HOW HE COULD WIN: Game win in UAE Derby wasn’t due to bias towards front-running horses that day.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: A taxing trip back from Dubai usually calls for a lengthy layoff. The Distorted Humor colt last ran on March 28.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: UAE Derby over stablemate Desert Party.
2. Pioneer of the Nile
HOW HE COULD WIN: Great pedigree (sired by Empire Maker with Unbridled next down the line) improves excellent synthetic track form when transferring to dirt surface.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Has never ran on dirt before, Gomez has a Derby jinx or colt runs erratically over the track as did in the Santa Anita Derby.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: CashCall Futurity by a neck over I Want Revenge in December, however, I Want Revenge has vastly improved since transferring to dirt racing.
3. Square Eddie
HOW HE COULD WIN: Finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and champion is off the trail.
WHY HE WOULD’T WIN: Had a three-month layoff after experiencing a minor leg fracture and faded to third in the top of the stretch in Lexington return.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: A 4 ¾-length victory in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity prior to the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland. May be a synthetic track specialist?
4. I Want Revenge
HOW HE COULD WIN: Run’s to form of last two outings.
WHY HE WOULD’T WIN: Major traffic jam around the far turn with 19 horses blocking the way to the wire.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Wood Memorial after stumbling out of the gate and being hand ridden, while splitting horses to get up in time.
5. Papa Clem
HOW HE COULD WIN: Peaks at the right moment.
WHY HE WOULD’T WIN: Has run second to top contenders such as Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile in previous races.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Arkansas Derby victory over then-contender Old Fashioned.
6. Desert Party
HOW HE COULD WIN: Improves off of prep’s against stablemate in Dubai.
WHY HE WOULD’T WIN: Like Regal Ransom, a taxing trip back from Dubai usually calls for a lengthy layoff. The Street Cry colt last ran on March 28.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: A 3 ¼-length Sanford win in the slop at Saratoga back in July.
7. Quality Road
HOW HE COULD WIN: Proves me wrong and is simply the best 3-year-old in the land.
WHY HE WOULD’T WIN: I Want Revenge beats him.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Florida Derby against the heralded, then untested Dunkirk, which he pulled away from in the stretch after being gamely challenged.
8. General Quarters
HOW HE COULD WIN: The soft fields he has beaten turn out to be not-so-soft.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Hasn’t faced any of the real contenders.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Blue Grass upset.
9. Friesan Fire
HOW HE COULD WIN: Has seven weeks of rest heading into the Derby, had a big one-mile tune up this week and is following same schedule as Hard Spun did in 2007.
WHY HE WON’T WIN: Hard Spun finished second and seven weeks is a long time not to race.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Louisiana Derby romp.
10. Musket Man
HOW HE COULD WIN: Race completely falls apart. Top contenders don’t run true to form.
WHY HE WON’T WIN: There are too many contenders better than this one.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Illinois Derby solidifying Tampa Bay Derby win against lower tier horses.
TOP-THREE HORSES TO MAKE TRIFECTA
1. I Want Revenge
2. Quality Road
3. Friesan Fire
- Matthew Kimel, sports editor
