Post positions will be drawn live on ESPN Wednesday afternoon for the 135th Kentucky Derby. With the recent defection of Florida Derby winner Quality Road, I Want Revenge figures to be a solid favorite to win the Run for the Roses, and rightfully so. Last week, I took a look at the top-10 contenders that could be entered into the Derby based on graded stakes earnings, and this week, I’ll examine the No. 11-20 contenders. Followed below is my betting strategy guide prior to the post positions being drawn.
11. West Side Bernie
HOW HE COULD WIN: Top-contenders don’t run to form, race completely falls apart.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His last win was in September. Not likely to return to the winner’s circle as time soon.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Took the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway as a 2-year-old by three-lengths.
12. Chocolate Candy
HOW HE COULD WIN: Happens to peak at the right moment; highly unlikely.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His wins have come against low-quality fields in petty stakes.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: El Camino Real Derby because it was a graded stake. His other victories may have been more impressive visually, but they weren’t graded.
13. Win Willy
HOW HE COULD WIN: Arkansas Derby fourth-place finish was fluke, runs to form in Rebel.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Ran poorly in the Arkansas Derby.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Boxcar odds Rebel Stakes win over then-contender Old Fashioned.
14. Advice
HOW HE COULD WIN: Morph’s overnight into a contender.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He ran two weeks ago, too quick of a return.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Coolmore Lexington is his only win aside from maiden.
15. Dunkirk
HOW HE COULD WIN: He’s fired four straight bullets; favored I Want Revenge gets a terrible trip.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Has only faced graded stakes competition once and did not run as a 2-year-old.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Allowance race at Gulfstream. Best race, however, was a game second to then-contender Quality Road in Florida Derby.
16. Mine That Bird
HOW HE COULD WIN: Trained magnificently under the radar for past few months.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Flopped miserably in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and hasn’t run in a graded stake since.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Grey Stakes at Woodbine in October, which concluded a four-win streak for the colt as a 2-year-old.
17. Flying Private
HOW HE COULD WIN: He can’t.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He has won just one of 10 career races.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: A six-furlong maiden victory at Saratoga in August.
18. Mr. Hot Stuff
HOW HE COULD WIN: Doesn’t care for synthetic tracks, secretly loves the dirt track at Churchill Downs.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Hasn’t fared too well against graded stakes competition.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one-mille maiden victory at Santa Anita in February.
19. Summer Bird
HOW HE COULD WIN: Unexpected speed duel between 19 horses occurs in the front.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Lack of graded stakes other than Arkansas Derby; may be trailing by 20 lengths early.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one 1/16th-mile maiden victory at Oaklawn in March.
20. Join in the Dance
HOW HE COULD WIN: 19 gates fail to open, with the exception of his.
WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Only made the field with numerous defections of better horses.
BEST WIN THUS FAR: Maiden race.
135th Kentucky Derby betting guide
TO WIN: I Want Revenge
EXACTA BOX: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire
TRIFECTA WHEELS: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire with Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie
And
Friesan Fire WITH I Want Revenge WITH Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie
May 3, 2009 at 10:26 am |
[...] Here are my previous picks before the scratch. [...]