Derby Fever: I Want Revenge scratched; Friesan Fire should win with ease now

I’ve been saying I Want Revenge would win the Derby for weeks, and now, on the day of the Run for the Roses, he gets scratched.

Oh well.

Time to resort to plan B.

Friesan Fire, my second place horse, is now the pick.

He will have tons of history to overcome — a seven week layoff and his trainer Larrry Jones’ second-place blues in the past two runnings of the Derby.

But when Friesan Fire wins, it should make a nice story for Jones following last year’s Eight Belles tradegy.

Here are my previous picks before the scratch.

Now, I’m playing Friesan Fire boxed with Regal Ransom (should be out on the lead early) and Papa Clem (a half brother to Curlin with Bejaron aboard).

-Matthew Kimel, sports editor

Derby Fever: A betting strategy guide for the Derby and a look at 10 more contenders

Post positions will be drawn live on ESPN Wednesday afternoon for the 135th Kentucky Derby. With the recent defection of Florida Derby winner Quality Road, I Want Revenge figures to be a solid favorite to win the Run for the Roses, and rightfully so. Last week, I took a look at the top-10 contenders that could be entered into the Derby based on graded stakes earnings, and this week, I’ll examine the No. 11-20 contenders. Followed below is my betting strategy guide prior to the post positions being drawn.

11. West Side Bernie

HOW HE COULD WIN: Top-contenders don’t run to form, race completely falls apart.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His last win was in September. Not likely to return to the winner’s circle as time soon.

BEST WIN THUS FAR:  Took the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway as a 2-year-old by three-lengths.

12. Chocolate Candy

HOW HE COULD WIN: Happens to peak at the right moment; highly unlikely.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His wins have come against low-quality fields in petty stakes.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: El Camino Real Derby because it was a graded stake. His other victories may have been more impressive visually, but they weren’t graded.

13. Win Willy

HOW HE COULD WIN: Arkansas Derby fourth-place finish was fluke, runs to form in Rebel.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Ran poorly in the Arkansas Derby.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Boxcar odds Rebel Stakes win over then-contender Old Fashioned.

14. Advice

HOW HE COULD WIN: Morph’s overnight into a contender.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He ran two weeks ago, too quick of a return.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Coolmore Lexington is his only win aside from maiden.

15. Dunkirk

HOW HE COULD WIN: He’s fired four straight bullets; favored I Want Revenge gets a terrible trip.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Has only faced graded stakes competition once and did not run as a 2-year-old.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Allowance race at Gulfstream. Best race, however, was a game second to then-contender Quality Road in Florida Derby.

16. Mine That Bird

HOW HE COULD WIN: Trained magnificently under the radar for past few months.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Flopped miserably in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and hasn’t run in a graded stake since.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Grey Stakes at Woodbine in October, which concluded a four-win streak for the colt as a 2-year-old.

17. Flying Private

HOW HE COULD WIN: He can’t.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He has won just one of 10 career races.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A six-furlong maiden victory at Saratoga in August.

18. Mr. Hot Stuff

HOW HE COULD WIN: Doesn’t care for synthetic tracks, secretly loves the dirt track at Churchill Downs.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Hasn’t fared too well against graded stakes competition.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one-mille maiden victory at Santa Anita in February.

19. Summer Bird

HOW HE COULD WIN: Unexpected speed duel between 19 horses occurs in the front.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Lack of graded stakes other than Arkansas Derby; may be trailing by 20 lengths early.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one 1/16th-mile maiden victory at Oaklawn in March.

20. Join in the Dance

HOW HE COULD WIN: 19 gates fail to open, with the exception of his.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN:  Only made the field with numerous defections of better horses.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Maiden race.

135th Kentucky Derby betting guide

TO WIN: I Want Revenge

EXACTA BOX: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire

TRIFECTA WHEELS: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire with Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie
And
Friesan Fire WITH I Want Revenge WITH Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie

Derby Fever: Looks like Gomez, Pletcher won’t win the Derby, again

Jockey Garrett Gomez and trainer Todd Pletcher teamed up Saturday to take the $300,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. III) at odds of 15/1 as Advice was the first to cross the wire.

Those connections, however, will not be a winning pair come Derby Day, despite being arguably the best in their resective fields.

In fact, neither has ever even won the Derby. And that’s something most likely to stay true after this year.

Gomez, the nations leading jockey in terms of earnings, has made a commitment to ride Pioneer of the Nile in favor of Dunkirk and Advice.

Anyway, I’m going to change leads here since the first Saturday of May is quickly approaching, and I have already concluded that no 3-year-old will beat I Want Revenge. So let’s take a look at the other contenders and how they could(n’t) win. Horses are ranked based on highest graded stakes earnings.

Derby Fever: I want I Want Revenge to win the Derby

Even though there are still some Derby prep’s that haven’t taken place, I have seen enough.

No other 3-year-old in this year’s crop has been as impressive as I Want Revenge, winner of the Wood Memorial (gr. I) and Gotham Stakes (gr. III).

Derby Fever: Quality Road to the Derby, Dunkirk is done?

The favorite didn’t win, but it’s quite likely that the winner of the Florida Derby (gr. I) will go on to take the Roses for the third time in four years.

Quality Road’s game victory over the heralded allowance winner Dunkirk not only broke the 1 1/8 mile track record for the South Florida track, but it assured Quality Road one of 20 spots in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May.

Piloted by John Velazquez, the 3-year-old Quality Road put away Dunkirk in the stretch run to register a 1 3/4-length victory in 1:47.72 on a lightning fast track on which two previous record times were also cracked.