Post-Derby Fever: Rail won’t open up like Red Sea for Borel at Pimlico

Calvin “Bo-rail” did it again.

Mine That Bird won the 135th Kentucky Derby, but not on the merit that he was the best horse in the field, rather, the better horses didn’t show up.

‘That Bird’ would have never won that Derby had injuries not occurred to nearly every contender.

That, and the fact his rider owns the rail at Churchill Downs.

Visually speaking, Mine That Bird’s win was indeed impressive.

His winning time of 2:02.66, however, was not.

And his victory of margin is telling of how weak the field indeed was.

There’s absolutely no reason not to believe that the colts that got injured (see below) along the Derby trail couldn’t have ran a better race.

Even Rachel Alexandra, winner of the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May by a romping 20-lengths, seemingly could have out run Mine That Bird.

But Borel’s winning-ride was reminiscent to that of Street Sense’s two year’s ago.

It’s almost as if the rail opens up like the Red Sea when Borel rides.

When are the other jocks going to learn to rail-block Borel?

Hopefully at Pimlico they will. But it shouldn’t matter anyway.

Even though another weak field is likely to be drawn for the Preakness, Mine That Bird will not win the second leg of the Triple Crown.

But in the mean time, let’s look at why Mine That Bird won the Roses.

First, the only major contender who did not get hurt in the Derby or on the way to Louisville was Pioneerof the Nile.

While the Bob Baffert-trainee did indeed come in second place, he once again failed to run straight in the lane, one of the major reasons why I refused to support him on Derby day. And he lost by 6 ¾-lengths to a horse sent off at boxcar odds.

Second, the list of contenders who got injured made a better “field” than the actual horses who made the field.

I Want Revenge: Scratched on Derby day.
Quality Road: Taken out of consideration on Derby week.
Midshipman: Injured after winning Breeders Cup Juvenile.
Friesan Fire: Derby favorite got jumped on out the gate, bleed throughout race.
Dunkirk: Came out of the Derby with a quarter injury.
Old Fashioned … Win Willy … and so on.

Don’t be surprised to see a horse other than Mine That Bird go off as the favorite for the Preakness. Mine That Bird and Borel won’t do it again.

-Matthew Kimel, sports editor

Derby Fever: A betting strategy guide for the Derby and a look at 10 more contenders

Post positions will be drawn live on ESPN Wednesday afternoon for the 135th Kentucky Derby. With the recent defection of Florida Derby winner Quality Road, I Want Revenge figures to be a solid favorite to win the Run for the Roses, and rightfully so. Last week, I took a look at the top-10 contenders that could be entered into the Derby based on graded stakes earnings, and this week, I’ll examine the No. 11-20 contenders. Followed below is my betting strategy guide prior to the post positions being drawn.

11. West Side Bernie

HOW HE COULD WIN: Top-contenders don’t run to form, race completely falls apart.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His last win was in September. Not likely to return to the winner’s circle as time soon.

BEST WIN THUS FAR:  Took the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway as a 2-year-old by three-lengths.

12. Chocolate Candy

HOW HE COULD WIN: Happens to peak at the right moment; highly unlikely.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: His wins have come against low-quality fields in petty stakes.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: El Camino Real Derby because it was a graded stake. His other victories may have been more impressive visually, but they weren’t graded.

13. Win Willy

HOW HE COULD WIN: Arkansas Derby fourth-place finish was fluke, runs to form in Rebel.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Ran poorly in the Arkansas Derby.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Boxcar odds Rebel Stakes win over then-contender Old Fashioned.

14. Advice

HOW HE COULD WIN: Morph’s overnight into a contender.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He ran two weeks ago, too quick of a return.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Coolmore Lexington is his only win aside from maiden.

15. Dunkirk

HOW HE COULD WIN: He’s fired four straight bullets; favored I Want Revenge gets a terrible trip.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Has only faced graded stakes competition once and did not run as a 2-year-old.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Allowance race at Gulfstream. Best race, however, was a game second to then-contender Quality Road in Florida Derby.

16. Mine That Bird

HOW HE COULD WIN: Trained magnificently under the radar for past few months.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Flopped miserably in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and hasn’t run in a graded stake since.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Grey Stakes at Woodbine in October, which concluded a four-win streak for the colt as a 2-year-old.

17. Flying Private

HOW HE COULD WIN: He can’t.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: He has won just one of 10 career races.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A six-furlong maiden victory at Saratoga in August.

18. Mr. Hot Stuff

HOW HE COULD WIN: Doesn’t care for synthetic tracks, secretly loves the dirt track at Churchill Downs.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Hasn’t fared too well against graded stakes competition.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one-mille maiden victory at Santa Anita in February.

19. Summer Bird

HOW HE COULD WIN: Unexpected speed duel between 19 horses occurs in the front.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN: Lack of graded stakes other than Arkansas Derby; may be trailing by 20 lengths early.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: A one 1/16th-mile maiden victory at Oaklawn in March.

20. Join in the Dance

HOW HE COULD WIN: 19 gates fail to open, with the exception of his.

WHY HE WOULDN’T WIN:  Only made the field with numerous defections of better horses.

BEST WIN THUS FAR: Maiden race.

135th Kentucky Derby betting guide

TO WIN: I Want Revenge

EXACTA BOX: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire

TRIFECTA WHEELS: I Want Revenge WITH Friesan Fire with Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie
And
Friesan Fire WITH I Want Revenge WITH Desert Party/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Papa Clem/Regal Ransom/Square Eddie

Derby Fever: I want I Want Revenge to win the Derby

Even though there are still some Derby prep’s that haven’t taken place, I have seen enough.

No other 3-year-old in this year’s crop has been as impressive as I Want Revenge, winner of the Wood Memorial (gr. I) and Gotham Stakes (gr. III).

Derby Fever: Mullins-trained I Want Revenge overcomes bad trip, takes Wood

There’s not more a trainer can ask for in a Derby prep than what Jeff Mullins got out of I Want Revenge in the $750,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I) Saturday at Aqueduct.

With young Joe Talamo in the irons, the son of Stephen Got Even broke poorly out of the starting gate, which cost him nearly eight lengths from the get go.

Derby Fever: Quality Road to the Derby, Dunkirk is done?

The favorite didn’t win, but it’s quite likely that the winner of the Florida Derby (gr. I) will go on to take the Roses for the third time in four years.

Quality Road’s game victory over the heralded allowance winner Dunkirk not only broke the 1 1/8 mile track record for the South Florida track, but it assured Quality Road one of 20 spots in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May.

Piloted by John Velazquez, the 3-year-old Quality Road put away Dunkirk in the stretch run to register a 1 3/4-length victory in 1:47.72 on a lightning fast track on which two previous record times were also cracked.

Derby Fever: The Road to the Roses continues

Two new contenders and two leading contenders solidified their path towards a Run for the Roses Saturday in four key Derby preps.

While it is quiet possible the public has already seen the winner of the first jewel of the Triple Crown race in a graded stake, it’s never safe to say the next Curlin or Big Brown won’t emerge on to the scene as a latecomer.

Before we start to talk about the chalk winners over the weekend, let’s take a look at the long shots that entered the winner’s circle Saturday.